Athens, 6 November 2007

Does Europe have a message for the world?

Ladies and Gentlemen:

It is a great pleasure to be here.

Whenever I visit Oxford I am reminded of the words of William Butler Yeats who famously wondered, whether, and I quote, “anybody does anything at Oxford but dream and remember, the place is so beautiful. One almost expects the people to sing instead of speaking. It is all . . . like an opera.”

Well, it is clear that the man had never visited the island of Crete.

It is a further pleasure to be here, at St Antony’s College.

I would like to thank Professor Othon Anastasakis for making this possible. I am looking forward to the discussion afterwards.

Ladies and gentlemen,

I became a grandmother fairly recently – just this summer- so I inevitably have started to think more and more about the future; the time my grandson will be about your age.

What will the world look like I wonder?All else being equal – if that is at all possible- and not accounting for the many catastrophic scenarios we have all heard at times, some rough working assumptions can be made.

So, let’s take a deep breath and think of our planet in 2030.

Moore’s Law says computer power should double every 18 months for the next 15 years. Our life will change at every level.

Our economy will shift gears as the third industrial revolution matures.According to the World Bank, growth will be powered increasingly by the now developing countries, notably in Asia. Overall, their share in global output will increase from about one-fifth of the world economy to nearly one-third.

The world’s population is expected to increase to eight billion by 2030. The good news is that the number of people with an income below $1 a day will fall by half. The ranks of the middle classes will triple. Countries as diverse as China, Mexico and Turkey will average living standards comparable to Spain today.

Of course nothing comes for free.

Evolution occurs at a significant social and environmental cost. In two-thirds of developing countries the income gap between the rich and the poor is expected to increase. Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East are more likely to fall further behind.

Migratory trends will increase dramatically.

The environment will suffer: Resources we once took for granted –like water- will become valuable commodities.

Europe is expected to come under increased pressure. Traditional competitive advantages may prove either too costly or simply outdated.

North America will only form part of our competition as India and China will claim their share. Europe’s share of the world population will drop, while our dependence on energy will grow.

It is forecast that, by 2030, Europe will be externally dependent for 90% of its oil and for 65% of its gas.

Add these factors to the more or less well known issues we have to deal, with like climate change, ageing, terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, regional conflicts, state failure and organized crime.

This could well be your world.

The future calls into question some of our most basic assumptions regarding the way the world works. We will be dealing with new realities, new threats.

Now, “problems” Albert Einstein once said, “can not be solved on the same level of consciousness that created them.”

Today this is truer than ever.

We need a paradigm shift.

To begin with there are two working hypotheses we could agree upon.

The first is that traditional diplomacy has given way to more comprehensive –more global if I you like- approaches. Integrated strategies carry the day, as foreign policy becomes more and more complex.

A number of tools are necessary: from trade and the environment to education and human rights. Failure on one front leads to failure in many.

Take the case of Darfur. In many ways the war in Darfur can be linked to climate change. The atrocities that are taking place are a gross insult to all of us who believe in human rights. Regional and international organizations, like the African Union or the United Nations, are involved in an effort to bring peace.

Second, and this is of course tied to the first, the distance between external and internal problems has long ago evaporated. I won’t dwell on this very much because I think there has been a lot of talk about globalization’s both bright and dark side. The seemingly unlikely pair of Iraq and Greece forms an interesting example. For most Greeks, Iraq could be a tragedy in a far and distant land unfolding on TV.

Yet, it doesn’t take six degrees of separation to link the situation in Iraq with a very real challenge that Greece and the whole of Europe for that matter face.

As we speak it has been estimated that 140.000 individuals are waiting to illegally cross the border to Greece and hence Europe- from Turkey’s coast.

And, guess what, the overwhelming majority, are Iraqi refugees.

Ladies and gentlemen:

If we want to prepare for 2030 we need to seek openness from the others and from ourselves. A global Europe must adapt to the needs, protect the interests and meet the expectations of its citizens.

To do this we must make the most of our bonds and articulate one common vision.

And at heart of the new paradigm lies a more coherent and effective EU.

This is the political case I put forward to you today. This is our new frontier.

Europe needs to kick down doors and break down barriers. Be they barriers to trade and investment, barriers to free speech and democracy, or more generally barriers to progress.

Ladies and Gentlemen:

Europe today has every reason to face the world with confidence.

Economically, the European experiment is proving a success as the internal market is proving a solid base for economic growth. The EU is the world’s largest exporter of goods and services and its largest importer of goods, the largest importer of energy, and the world’s largest donor of development assistance.

Politically, we have finally managed to find our way out of the institutional dead end. After six long years of debate, some soul searching, lost referenda, a long reflection period, more debate and keeping Europe’s leaders long past their bed time a couple of times, Europe has managed to drop the excessive baggage.

Now, I understand that some in this country have labeled the Lisbon Treaty as the greatest assault on sovereignty since World War Two. Allow me to insist however that the Reform Treaty, to be signed in mid-December, will make EU’s institutions more efficient and significantly streamline decision-making.

Now is the time to move on.

To return to the real world where real policy issues demand our attention.

It is time to talk politics.

Looking back from 2030 you will probably test us by our failure or our success at three levels.

·Sustainable development.

·Energy and the environment.

·Security and our external relations.

At the heart of sustainable development, in the long term, lies the so-called knowledge triangle. Research. Education. Innovation.

We need to unlock Europe’s potential.

Let me be very clear, however.

Although state aid unquestionably has its place, this cannot be a centrally planned exercise.The private sector needs to be empowered, as knowledge transfer across the board horizontally and vertically- has to be facilitated. This is a key lesson learned in the re-launched Lisbon strategy that focuses more on growth and employment via simplification and national ownership.

On energy and the environment, I am proud to say that the European Union the EU has set a series of ambitious targets on greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy. At the same time we aim to create a true internal market for energy and strengthen effective regulation. Europe is at the forefront of change fighting for a 30% cut in emissions from developed countries by 2020. And we lead by example: the European Union has committed itself to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% by 2020.

At the Bali conference in December the EU will speak with one voice in calling for binding targets post-2012. In Indonesia, the aim will be to draw up a roadmap, which will provide a general framework for negotiations based on shared principles so that an ambitious agreement can be reached in Copenhagen in 2009.

Turning to security and our external relations. Recently a BBC correspondent wondered whether tyrants cower when the European Parliament denounces their misdeeds. Probably not that many.

Although I cannot but agree with him that few realize how seriously the EU is taken in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Indeed, I am constantly struck by the demand for Europe across the world. Wherever I travel, be it in the Middle East, Asia, or Africa, people ask for more Europe – not less. None of the 27 nation states of the EU – even the most powerful- can be truly effective or sometimes even relevant when acting alone.

Unfortunately notions of sovereignty and national pride get in the way.

To a certain extend this is natural. Foreign policy lies at the heart of the nation-state. Indeed, and that is just one example of many, EU member states remain part of other networks of states based on shared history, language, culture, geography, or political similarities.

For example Spain’s links with Latin America, Britain and France’s links to the Anglophone and Francophone worlds respectively.

Seen under this light, the divisions that arise amongst us member states are unavoidable. Very often we sacrifice European solidarity too easily in order to serve our national –often petty- interests. Even worse we tend, often by default, to take positions that are influenced by third parties.

Of course the European Union is not a full-blooded Federation.

To be realistic, the concept of a United States of Europe remains hidden somewhere over the rainbow.

What we can attain is a common policy, not a single one.

There will always be several voices. At the end of the day, Europe has always moved forward through consensus.

Make no mistake however. Speaking with one voice whether we agree or disagree with our partners around the world or across the Atlantic for that matter – this is Europe’s greatest obligation; our greatest challenge.

International politics is not a “zero-sum” game. The presence of a European Union will not crowd out anyone. NATO will not be denied its raison d’État. The Atlantic Alliance, of which lest we forget 25 out of 27 European countries participate in one way or the other, defines, to a certain extend, our understanding of a common foreign and defense policy. At the same time, it embodies an operational multilateral forum and a strong and vibrant transatlantic relationship.

In order to face regional and other challenges, we need to formulate the most expedient power-sharing possible with each of us undertaking the responsibilities it is most fit to bear. In this context, European soft power is of course a desired corollary to US military might.

Still, Europe must develop, as it is already slowly doing, its own capacities. This is crucial, particularly in regions where only Europe can be an acceptable mediator to all. This is a lesson we have learned in the Balkans and the Middle East.

Ladies and Gentlemen:

“A politician,” Winston Churchill once said, “needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.”

Words of caution that all of us politicians would be wise to remember.

Today I took a big risk by speaking about the world in 2030.

I also spoke of our own, to quote Sir Winston again, “empire of the mind.”

No one can be certain of what the future beholds.

We can, however, prepare to the best of our knowledge, to the best of our capacity, to the best of our ability.

Thank you very much.